Lyela Sayarath, a student at Apalachee High School, stated that Colt Gray left their Algebra class at approximately 9:45am. 

The shooting started at approximately 10:20am. If this is accurate, then it means that Gray was out of his classroom for approximately 35 minutes.

Where was he?

Was he sitting in the hall, hiding in the library, walking the halls, in the bathroom, hanging out with others? Did he even have permission to leave the classroom?

Gray tried to get back into his classroom at 10:20am. The door was locked so Gray knocked and the teacher said to let him in. The students refused after they saw him pull a gun out of his bag. When he left the classroom he didn’t have the bag. When he returned he had the bag so some time in those 35 minutes he retrieved it.

Where did he get it from?

Gray is too young to have a license so he can’t drive and he doesn’t have a car. The gun and ammunition had to be in his locker or stashed somewhere near school grounds. A few school attackers have done this, but it seem unlikely Gray did. He had only been at the school for a few days so it’s more likely that he retrieved it from his locker.

What kind of bag was it?

The Parkland murderer carried his weapons in a giant ROTC bag. The Columbine murderers carried their propane bombs in giant blue bags. The Erfurt murderer carried his guns and ammunition in a large black duffle bag. The Ocala, Florida school attacker carried his gun in a guitar case.

Chances are someone saw Gray carrying a bag when he arrived at school. Students carry bags. Did this bag appear like a normal bag or a much larger, heavier looking bag?

Did anyone see him carrying the bag between 9:45 and 10:20am?

He had to be walking with it in the halls at some point because the students saw it in his hands when Gray approached their classroom at 10:20.

It’s almost certain that he passed other students, teachers, principals, and staff members. Did Gray say anything to those that he passed?

Did those he passed notice anything odd or off putting about him?

The 54-year old Platt Canyon High School Murderer was seen by several students walking in the hall and carrying a black bag as well as sitting alone in a classroom before he began his attack. He was in the school for approximately an hour before he began his attack. Those who saw him described him as “creepy” but it doesn’t appear they told anyone.

On the day of the attack, Gray’s mother called the school at 9:50am and spoke to a counselor for approximately 10 minutes. Her son had just left his classroom. Gray’s mother reportedly warned the staff of an “extreme emergency” and that she urged them to “immediately” find her son and check on him.

At approximately 10:00am, an administrator entered Gray’s classroom. A miscommunication led to the administrator searching for the wrong student. She was told that the student she was looking for was in the bathroom so the administrator retrieved that student’s backpack and left the classroom. When that student returned a few minutes later, he stated that the administrator wasn’t looking for him after all but Colt Gray. The two must have spoken either in the bathroom or in the hall.

At 10:20am, the teacher was called on the intercom. At the same time, Gray appeared at the door and knocked to get back in. The teacher stated, “Oh, he’s here” but instead of the students opening the door, they started to quickly back away when they saw him pulling his gun out of his bag.

Lyela Sayarath could see Gray through the classroom door window. She watched him turn away and then heard 10-15 rapid gunshots.

Four minutes later at 10:24am, law enforcement officers confronted Gray and he surrendered.

At 10:20am, Gray started shooting. 

At 10:24, he was stopped. 

One might think that the attack lasted 4 minutes but it didn’t. The attack didn’t start when the shooting started, it started at 9:45am…35 minutes earlier when he left the classroom.

In truth, the attack most likely started sometime around May 2023 when Gray was reported to law enforcement for displaying indictors of danger. Therefore, the attack really lasted at least 1 year, three months, and 39 minutes. Maybe longer.

Why is this important to remember?

75% of all school attackers give off public indicators of danger. I believe it’s really 100%. Gray gave off public indicators of danger—a lot of indicators of danger and these were conveyed to law enforcement, observed by his family, and reported by his mother.

That means that long before Gray fired his first shot—he told everyone he was a threat with his behavior. That means for 1 year, three months, and 35 minutes there was a chance to prevent this attack.

I’m not wagging my finger at anyone but trying to remind everyone that there is a great deal we can do to prevent school attacks.

I know it seems like Apalachee High School and Colt Gray just appeared in an instant, out of nowhere. One moment we had no idea who they were and the next they are burned into our memory and we’ll most likely never forget them.

But that is not how school attacks work—that is not what happened at Apalachee High School. On average, most school attackers plan and prepare between 3-7 months before they attack a school. It appears Gray was planning and preparing for over a year and a half.

Nearly 70% of all school attacks are committed by a current or former student. That means we have lots of opportunities to engage today, spot indicators of danger, course correct negative trajectories, turn hearts, meet needs, and find a way to prevent violence.

If you want to make your school safer, you must do 3 things!

1. Increase and enhance your supervision of the students and the spaces they use.
2. Increase and enhance your access control.
3. Increase and enhance your ownership (territorial reinforcement).

Conversely, if you don’t do these three things you will be more vulnerable to violence.

Gray left his classroom so he was no longer under the supervision of adults. Because there was limited supervision there was limited access control. Therefore, Gray was able to put his hands on his weapons—to gain access to them. The more supervision and access control you have over the students and the spaces they use the greater your ownership and the stronger the message you send to potential threats. Great ownership tells potential offenders that it won’t be easy for them to do violence and they shouldn’t even try.

I completely understand how these tragedies can make you feel like it’s hopeless or that there is nothing that can be done. If you give in to that belief you will do the one thing that you don’t want to do—raise your vulnerability to violence.

If you can, try to resist shrinking into your classroom, your office, your thoughts. Don’t give hate the last word. It’s a time for engagement and increased supervision, access control, and ownership.

Every day is another chance to prevent violence therefore every day is one of hope. More than ever we need each other and we need you!

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